This year is on track to become the planet’s second or third-warmest ever recorded, likely just behind the unprecedented heat experienced last year, according to new climate data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

 

 

The findings arrive shortly after global climate talks where world leaders failed to reach meaningful new commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting deep geopolitical tensions and weakening momentum for climate action.

 

 

 

Scientists warn that this year will likely complete the first three-year stretch in which the global average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This threshold, long considered a critical limit to reduce the risks of devastating climate impacts, reflects how quickly the planet is heating.

 

“These milestones are not abstract – they reflect the accelerating pace of climate change,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic climate lead at the Copernicus service.

 

Extreme weather has continued to devastate communities worldwide. In the Philippines, Typhoon Kalmaegi recently claimed more than 200 lives. Spain experienced its most severe wildfires in 30 years, fuelled by conditions scientists say were made more likely by human-driven warming.

Natural climate variations cause temperatures to shift from year to year, but decades of research confirm a clear upward trend tied directly to greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. The last decade has been the hottest ten-year period ever recorded.

Although the world has not officially crossed the 1.5°C limit—defined as a multi-decade average—the United Nations has warned that meeting the target is no longer realistic. However, experts emphasize that rapidly cutting emissions can still limit how far the world overshoots it.

 

Temperature records from the Copernicus Climate Change Service date back to 1940 and are cross-referenced with global datasets extending to the mid-19th century, strengthening scientists’ confidence in the alarming trends they are observing.