Ahead of the 2027 general elections, former Secretary General of the Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, Anthony Sani, has claimed that Northerners don’t trust Peter Obi enough to allow him to rule Nigeria for one single tenure.

Sani also noted in an interview that the politics of zoning may not favour Atiku in his bid to defeat Tinubu.
Sani noted that Tinubu stands a better chance of getting Northern votes and retaining his mandate in office.

In 2027, who may likely pull Buhari’s bloc votes from the North between Tinubu, Atiku, and Peter Obi?

President Bola Tinubu may still prevail. This is because former President Buhari had told the nation and his supporters that he was not favorably disposed to the coalition and what it stands for.
This is because he is committed to the APC, which made him president twice. Given the nature of Buhari’s supporters, they would not like to betray him even in the grave.

Can Tinubu get Northern votes and trust without Buhari?

President Bola Tinubu can still get Northern votes because of Buhari’s supporters who would not like to betray Buhari. This is because he had told them he was in the APC and died in the APC.

Can the opposition coalition defeat Tinubu?

The opposition may not defeat President Bola Tinubu because the dynamics are not in favor of the coalition. For example, unless President Tinubu does too badly- which I hope not, the North will prefer to let President Bola Tinubu complete the tenure meant for the South. This is because he is the only southerner who has only one term to go.

The North cannot trust Peter Obi that he will do one term. You would recall that President Jonathan pledged to do one term but reneged.
The politics of zoning does not favor Atiku precisely because all southerners and most northerners favor the idea of zoning in the interest of unity and stability of the country.

Which candidates should the coalition put forward that will give them the needed votes to defeat Tinubu? Speculations are around Atiku-Peter Obi, or Atiku-Amaechi
I have told you that politics do not favor the coalition. Whether the ticket is Atiku/Obi or Atiku/Amaechi, the result will be the same.

There is a school of thought that believes that with the caliber of imminent Nigerians in the coalition, Tinubu will ‘sweat’ during the 2027 elections. What’s your take on that?

Apart from the fact that the political dynamics do not favor the coalition, there is the challenge of the fact that the opposition has not told the nation what it will do differently from what the Tinubu administration is doing.

You would recall that Atiku, Peter Obi, and Bola Tinubu campaigned for the removal of fuel subsidy as a non-choice situation. And when the results of the elections were out, Atiku got 7m votes, Peter Obi garnered 6.1m votes and Bola Tinubu got 8m votes. These suggest Nigerians saw the removal of fuel subsidies as a non-choice factor.
So, in the absence of a real alternative course of action, the coalition does not constitute a viable platform that can adopt ADC to defeat the ruling party.

More so, the South-South and part of the South-East are moving to the APC.
Do you see Kwankwaso and El-Rufai playing any major role in getting votes for their respective camps in 2027?
Former governor El-Rufai is a very intelligent technocrat but not a street politician as such. So, he may not have electoral value compared to former Governor Kwankwaso who can deliver Kano state. And I foresee Kwankwaso defecting to the APC and adding political value to himself.