The NHS could face shortages of common prescription medicines, including those containing Paracetamol and Aspirin, as early as June if disruption from the Middle East conflict continues, industry leaders have warned.

 

 

Medicines UK, which represents manufacturers responsible for around 85 per cent of NHS prescriptions, said supply chains are under growing strain due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

 

 

The group said it is “increasingly concerned” that key chemicals used in drug manufacturing are now in short supply, with some companies reportedly receiving only a fraction of their usual materials. This disruption is already placing pressure on the availability and cost of medicines, raising the risk that patients could experience delays in accessing prescriptions in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

Prescription drugs most at risk include stronger painkillers such as co-codamol, as well as certain antibiotics and stroke-prevention medicines, many of which rely on petrochemical by-products affected by the supply chain disruption.

 

 

While the organisation noted that widespread day-to-day shortages have not yet been seen, it warned that continued instability could quickly escalate the situation.

 

 

The crisis is linked to wider economic fallout from the Middle East war, which has disrupted global shipping routes, driven up fuel prices and increased transportation costs. The Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for oil and gas exports, has seen a sharp drop in traffic, further affecting industries reliant on petrochemicals.

 

 

 

 

Experts say modern medicine supply chains operate like interconnected networks, meaning disruptions in one area, such as shipping routes or raw materials, can ripple across the entire system. The widespread use of “just-in-time” supply models, which minimise stockpiling, makes the system particularly vulnerable to shocks.

 

 

 

Officials at the Department of Health and Social Care said they are closely monitoring the situation, stressing that most medicines remain in good supply and that contingency measures, including buffer stocks and alternative sourcing, are in place to protect patients.

 

 

However, healthcare leaders have warned that if the conflict persists, the combined pressures on supply chains, manufacturing and logistics could lead to more significant shortages, potentially affecting both routine treatments and critical care medicines.