Nigeria lost an estimated N1.76tn in potential crude oil revenue after failing to meet its production quota set by OPEC between January 2025 and January 2026.

 

 

 

Figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission show that the country fell short of its 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) quota in nine months of 2025 and again in January 2026, despite relatively favourable global oil prices during much of the period.

 

 

Nigeria surpassed its quota only three times in 2025, in January (1.54 mbpd), June (1.51 mbpd), and July (1.51 mbpd), posting modest surpluses of between 10,000 and 40,000 barrels per day.

 

 

 

However, output declined below target in February (1.47 mbpd), March (1.40 mbpd), April (1.49 mbpd), May (1.45 mbpd), August (1.43 mbpd), September (1.39 mbpd), October (1.44 mbpd), November (1.46 mbpd), and December (1.47 mbpd).

 

 

 

September recorded the steepest deficit, with production averaging 1.39 mbpd — about 110,000 barrels per day below the quota. Over the nine deficit months in 2025, the country accumulated a gross shortfall of roughly 18.7 million barrels. After accounting for surpluses in January, June, and July, the net deficit for the year stood at 16.85 million barrels.

 

 

 

In January 2026, output averaged 1.459 mbpd, translating to an additional shortfall of approximately 1.27 million barrels. Altogether, Nigeria’s cumulative production gap from January 2025 to January 2026 reached 18.12 million barrels.

 

 

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria indicate that Bonny Light crude averaged $72.08 per barrel across the 10 months for which official pricing was available. Based on this average, the 18.12 million-barrel shortfall equates to an estimated revenue loss of $1.31bn. At an exchange rate of N1,353 per dollar, this amounts to about N1.76tn in lost revenue

 

 

 

The revenue gap comes even though Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels in 2025, generating gross oil receipts of approximately N55.5tn at the same average price and exchange rate.

 

 

 

Analysts note that the revenue figures reflect gross earnings and exclude deductions for production costs, joint venture obligations, cost recovery under production-sharing contracts, domestic supply requirements, and losses linked to oil theft.

 

 

Industry experts say the repeated failure to meet OPEC quotas underscores persistent structural challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, including infrastructure constraints, operational setbacks, security disruptions in the Niger Delta, and inconsistent field performance.

 

 

 

The production volatility highlights the vulnerability of Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy and raises concerns about fiscal stability.

 

 

 

For 2026, the Federal Government has adopted more conservative assumptions, projecting daily oil production of 1.84 million barrels (including condensates), a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of N1,400 per dollar.